Would Arsenal benefit if they miss out on the Champions League knock-out stage?

24 November 2015 01:30

Arsenal are looking to reach the knock-out stage of the Champions League for the 13th season in a row. It is a superb record and one which Arsene Wenger should be incredibly proud of. In recent seasons though he has received a huge amount of criticism for not winning the Premier League and failing to progress to the latter stages of the Champions League.

However, it must be remembered that in recent times Arsenal have been ravaged by both injuries and the sales of some of their key players. Robin van Persie left for the red half of Manchester while Samir Nasri, Bacary Sagna and Gael Clichy left for the blue half. In conjunction with this was the loss of talismanic midfielder Cesc Fabregas who now plays for Chelsea after a stint with Barcelona. Along with the sales have been the injuries sustained by so many key players in recent times with Arsenal’s injuries often moving into double figures. This has severely dented and, all too often, ended Arsenal’s hopes of Premier League and Champions League glory.

Surely it is now time for Arsenal to focus on winning the Premier League, a far more realistic option in comparison to Champions League success. Of course, all fans will cite that their team is strong enough to win both the Premier League and Champions League and Arsenal fans are no different. They do have a strong squad and have indeed strengthened in recent years. However, the injuries they have sustained are enough to decimate any team. Manchester City are touted as having one of the strongest squads in the Premier League but injuries to Captain Vincent Kompany and David Silva resulted in a resounding 4-1 defeat against Liverpool on the weekend. Sergio Aguero was also taken off due to his own injury concerns and manager Manuel Pellegrini not wanting to risk the Premier League’s most deadly striker for the full 90 minutes in his first game back.

City’s problems convey that injuries to key players will hurt any squad, no matter how deep it supposedly is. It is clear to see then that the injuries that stunt Arsenal would hurt any team’s hopes of silverware. However, these injury concerns seem to surface for Arsenal every season and so perhaps this term they should focus solely on the domestic league.

Arsenal currently sit bottom of group F with three points from four games while Dinamo Zagreb sit third with the same points. Bayern Munich and Olympiakos are first and second respectively with nine points from four games. Arsenal host Zagreb tonight at the Emirates stadium before travelling to Greece to play Olympiakos in their final group game.

If Arsenal were to progress they would have to win their final two games and hope Olympiakos don’t pick up any points against Bayern Munich. However, would Arsenal really benefit from progressing in the Champions League?

If they were to progress it would be as runner-up in the group. This could therefore result in a last-sixteen tie against the likes of Barcelona or Real Madrid. Arsenal are a fantastic team and on their day they can beat anyone shown in their superb 2-0 win over Bayern Munich. However, this fact is also true of the likes of Barcelona, Real and, of course Bayern who exacted their revenge on Arsenal with a 5-1 hammering of the Gunners in Germany. Coupled with Arsenal’s injury list and their lack of cover, it would most likely result in Arsenal exiting the competition at the round of sixteen.

So if Arsenal were to be eliminated before the knock-out stages how would it benefit them? First and foremost it would immediately eliminate any long haul flights which tire players out. Teams have benefited greatly in the Premier League from a lack of European games as they are usually playing once a week which has helped to keep their squad fresh and able to challenge, shown most prominently through surprise package Leicester, who sit top of the Premier League.

If Arsenal were able to solely focus on their domestic games it would of course be a disappointment to fans who always want to see their team challenging against the best teams in the World, however it would be far easier on their squad. It would also mean that the injuries that Arsenal have sustained would not be quite as damaging as they would not need to rotate their squad so often due to a lighter fixture list.

This would then surely give Arsenal the last push they need to finally attain the title they have so longed for. Wenger has already conducted the necessary business in bringing in the likes of Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Özil and Petr Cech. His retention of the talent of Santi Cazorla, Aaron Ramsey and Laurent Koscielny has worked well in conjunction with the nurturing of Hector Bellerin and Francis Coquelin. Wenger has steadily been building a team that can challenge both domestically and abroad. But can they win both the Premier League and the Champions League this season? No.

Arsenal’s injury list has made it almost impossible to contend with both the heavyweights in England and abroad. With their injuries they would struggle to challenge the likes of Barcelona and would probably be knocked out in the next round. However, with a lighter schedule they have every chance of winning the Premier League, especially after Liverpool’s victory over Manchester City blew the title race wide open.

With regard to Arsenal’s potential rivals, it is likely that both Chelsea and a resurgent Liverpool are too far behind at this stage to challenge. While Leicester City are at the summit of the Premier League now, their small squad and lack of title winning experience will surely detract from their challenge meaning they are likely to fall away and a European place, more likely Europa League, will be the summit of what they can attain. Manchester United and Tottenham, after very bright starts, are also likely to run out of steam. Both are lacking an experienced title winning team and they do not have the same depth in squad that Manchester City have.

That leaves only one side that Arsenal will be contending for the title with. While Manchester City did lose to Liverpool on the weekend, they are still the favourites. City have a squad crammed with title winning experience and talent which has been inflated with World class players through the millions of pounds worth of investment, thus creating a team with one sole aim, domination of the football World. While City have struggled in Europe recently, they have already qualified for the knock-out stages of the Champions League with two games remaining and have also been a force to be reckoned with in the Premier League.

City will be the team Arsenal have to topple this year. The question is, can they really do it? Of course they can. Providing they do not sustain any more injuries to key players and their players return to the squad fairly quickly then they have every necessary tool they need to beat Manchester City.

With the likes of Sanchez and Özil in the squad it is incredibly easy to assume they will be the ones that win or lose Arsenal the title. However, it is more likely that summer signing Petr Cech will be the deciding factor in their title push. Somewhere along the way Arsenal will lose a few key games, criticism will arise and confidence will plummet. Cech has been part of so many campaigns for Chelsea which have ended in silverware and it is his mature and experienced head that will ultimately decide whether Arsenal can rise from their slump. Coupled with his superb ability as a goalkeeper and his leadership, it is very easy to see why Arsene Wenger was comfortable only bringing the Czech Republic stopper in from the summer transfer window.

It may be a good thing then if Arsenal are eliminated from the Champions League early with Premier League silverware far more viable. However, Arsenal must be careful. If they are to win one and lose another they could be confined to the Europa League due to a third place finish and, while the tournament is of course worth winning, it would bring with it cold Thursday night games in Russia which would do the team no favours in their search for that elusive Premier League title.

Source: DSG