Federer. Nadal, Djokovic: As Unbreakable From 15/0 As They Are At 40/30

12 June 2019 09:55
What’s the difference between 15/0, 30/15 and 40/30? Essentially nothing… An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Big Three since the start of the 2015 season up to Roland Garros at these three scorelines identifies that the percentage chance of holding serve varies only by about one percentage point. You would naturally think there would be a significant increase in holding from 40/30 over 15/0, but it’s simply not the case. The following breakdown for Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer shows a consistent trend with all three point scores. Percentage Point Range Between 15/0, 30/15 and 40/30 Novak Djokovic = 1.1 percentage point Roger Federer = 1.0 percentage point Rafael Nadal = 1.0 percentage point No. 1 Novak Djokovic / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores Point Score Points Played Points Won Hold Percentage 15/0 2298 2487 92.4% 30/15 1396 1517 92.0% 40/30 1034 1110 93.1% Djokovic had the highest percentage chance of holding serve of the three point scores at 40/30 (93.1%). You would think being just one point from closing the game would significantly increase his chance of holding serve from a 15/0 position, but the gap between the two is just 0.7 percentage points. No. 2 Rafael Nadal / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores Point Score Points Played Points Won Hold Percentage 15/0 2023 2193 92.2% 30/15 1326 1432 92.6% 40/30 955 1024 93.2% Nadal also held serve the most when leading 40/30, 93.2 per cent (955/1024) of the time. All three of Nadal’s win percentages fall within a one percentage point range, between 92.2 per cent and 93.2 per cent. World No. 3 Roger Federer / 2015-2019 Holding Serve From Three Point Scores Point Score Points Played Points Won Hold Percentage 15/0 2183 2278 95.8% 30/15 1246 1314 94.8% 40/30 873 914 95.5% Federer had the highest win percentages for the Big Three at all three point scores. Surprisingly, Federer had a slightly better chance of holding serve at 15/0 (2183/2278) than he did at either of the other two point scores. When you drill down into statistics, you often find things can be quite different than you realise. In this case, the change you think is there doesn’t exist at all. . read full article

Source: Atpworldtour