Who'll make top four? Assessing the chances of this seasons top four contenders

24 February 2015 09:25

Twenty six rounds of matches in the English Premier League have been exhausted thus far-, twelve matches more, and the spotlight has shifted from who will win the title to which teams will finish in the top four- for a Champion’s League spot.

Well, the race is on, and it's going to be tighter than putting thread through the eye of a needle.

The 2014/2015 season has had some hard to predict moments. Key amongst them was the tie between current league leaders Chelsea and Manchester City who after 20 games apiece were level on all fronts; goals scored, goals conceded, wins, draws and defeats. Well, as it stands that's no longer the case with the citizens’ five points adrift of Chelsea who have 60 points now.

The spotlight, however, now is thrown on possible teams joining the Blues and City for a top four finish and Champions League spot. Two spots are up for grabs and Arsenal, Manchester United, Southampton, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspurs will have to battle it out till the ‘boys make way for the men to move on’. Till then, it's only three points that separate seventh placed Tottenham hotspurs from Manchester United in fourth position who also are also just a point adrift third place Arsenal.

What Then Are the Possibilities?

ARSENAL

The gunners sit 3rd with 48 points. They have enjoyed a good run of form winning 7 out of their last 9 games in all competitions since the turn of the year. Significant is the 2-0 victory over Manchester City at the Etihad. A performance many described as a ‘Mourinho signature play’. It didn't end there, gradually the gunners in the past month or more have been characterised with soaking up pressure relying on their last line of defence, David Ospina, (4 clean sheets in seven games) and taking their chances with a razor sharp attack in the likes of Alexis Sanchez (12 goals), injury returnee, Mesut Ozil and in-form striker, Oliver Giroud (Scored five and assisted three more in his last seven games for Arsenal in all competitions).

Nonetheless the blinker point will be the ability of the gunners to manoeuvre through a Champions league round 16 tie against AS Monaco, An FA cup quarter final date with Manchester United at the Old Trafford whilst still being in pole position for a top four finish with some daunting fixtures against Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool yet to come.

MANCHESTER UNITED

Statistics truly is fun to play around with; just exactly what Louis Van Gaal will always refer you to. United have lost just two games in twenty games. However soothing that sounds, the Red Devils are threatened by Southampton for fourth spot, with just a point separating both sides. For united, there are several talking points, Six months plus and former Ajax, Barcelona and Netherlands coach, Louis van Gaal is yet to settle on his first eleven not forgetting though that the team was hard hit by injuries at the turn of the season.

Another talking point has had to do with the ‘Big players’ at United, talk about Angel Di Maria, Juan Mata, Robin van Persie, Radamel Falcao and Wayne Rooney not giving out their maximum on the field of play. Meanwhile finishing fourth for United goes beyond the pride of it but also to the accounting books as the club could lose more than £20 million a year from a record-breaking kit deal with Adidas if they fail to qualify for the Champions League. The team's £750 million 10-year deal with the German sportswear giant will be cut by 30 per cent if they fail to qualify for the tournament for two consecutive seasons starting 2015/16.

SOUTHAMPTON

Oh When the saints go marching on…rhymes perfectly on my mind now. Southampton were the kind of team you wouldn't tip at the start of the season to be in the challenge for top four finish even after losing coach Pochettino, and a host of players– striker Rickie Lambert, captain Adam Lallana, and defender Dejan Lovren joined Liverpool for estimated fees of £4 million, £25 million, and £20 million respectively, left-back Luke Shaw moved to Manchester United for a club record fee in the region of £27 million, and right-back Calum Chambers joined Arsenal for approximately £16 million. Koeman fitted in well as new Coach, carrying on the saints’ torch pretty well with Graziano Pelle looking magnificent with 12 goals. But just when he stopped scoring; since the end of December, the Saints have found themselves at the loosing end to teams like Liverpool and Swansea. It all might be going well for the saints who finished last season on 8th position but will their relatively young squad be able to hit the next milestone with a fourth place finish?

LIVERPOOL

None can deny that the Reds are on their routine second half of the season resurgence. No team has taken more points since Christmas than Liverpool. More so, the only team yet to taste a premier league defeat in 2015, a total of 17 points since January 1st. The stats get even better for the Reds as they have six clean sheets in a 10-game unbeaten run in the Premier League. A vindication of Rodgers who insists on get a better version of his team even after losing Luis Suarez in a £75million to Barcelona. Last season was an ‘attack or bust’ (Mark Lawrenson, BBC) conceding as many as 50 goals. This season shows otherwise though. Good for the reds is the return of Daniel Sturridge who scored on his return, the growing maturity of 19-year old Jordan Ibe with some nimble feet.

A little flashback won’t take out the fun as Liverpool almost clinched the title but for a Steven Gerard slip against Chelsea at Anfield.

But same as Arsenal, Liverpool face the task of competing on three fronts; FA Cup, ever widening Europa league campaign plus a top four finish in the EPL. Obvious question is do the Reds have great strength in depth to compete well on all fronts? Or it gets reduced simply to a matter of competition priorities I bet that will be to finish top four!

TOTTENHAM HOTSPURS

Certainly one man doesn’t make a team, Yeah! Sure! However it’s always possible for a player or two to be super influential for a team. Harry ‘The Hurricane’ Kane is the name that comes up just when you mention spurs. With 14 goals already, I bet you won't miss the name even as you were an Arsenal fan! The other name is Christian Eriksen who has thus far been top notch. A peep into stats confirms that the last time Spurs won a premier league game without either Harry Kane or Christian Eriksen scoring was back in August vs QPR on Match day 2. A bit retrospection was the very season, 2009-2010 season Gareth Bale stood tall, spurs played their very first champions league after placing fourth in that season. Look no further, Harry Kane has thus far has stood tallest and looks to carry the team through but then again the image of Europa flares through the mind. Plus what becomes the fate of Tottenham should Kane get injured in the course of the season (not wishing for that though).

Looking through the past five years and you find Arsenal and Manchester United as traditional top four finishers with the former having a flirting affair with fourth position. Nonetheless the game razor sharp finishing spree of spurs, youthfully energetic saints will make sure the battle goes down to the wire.

The debate still continues though, who finishes in your top four predictions?

Source: DSG