Pundits are forever telling us that trying to predict the new Formula One season is a mug’s game. No other sport has so many drastic rule changes year on year, and pre-season testing tells us nothing, because no-one knows what setups different teams are running. Therefore, anyone who thinks they know who will be champion is an imbecile.
So, here’s my prediction. When we look for this year’s champion, the obvious place to start is with last year’s. Sebastian Vettel became the youngest champion in the sport’s history with some astonishing driving, especially in qualifying, where he took pole position ten times. However, a series of controversial collisions suggested that his race-craft was still lacking compared to some of his rivals. On the other hand, it’s fair to say that Vettel also had more than his fair share of misfortune in 2010, and without mechanical failures in Australia and Korea he would have sealed the title far more comfortably.
True Grit
As for Vettel’s teammate, Mark Webber showed tremendous grit in 2010, partly in the face of obvious favouritism towards Vettel from Red Bull, and partly in racing the last four races of the season with a fractured shoulder and not bothering to tell anyone. However, while he took the title race right down to the wire last year the feeling is that Webber just doesn’t have the speed to match Vettel, and his dispirited drive in Abu Dhabi last year seemed to be that of a man who knew his chance had gone.
The good news for Webber is that he and his teammate should once again have a great car. In Adrian Newey Red Bull have the greatest designer working in the sport today, and the cars pace in testing has looked formidable. Given that the team finished last season with a good few tenths in hand on their rivals it’s hard to believe that they won’t be right up there again this year.
Horse Power
So what of their rivals? Well, after Fernando Alonso’s Abu Dhabi nightmare when a seemingly certain championship faded away into a view of Vitali Petrov’s gearbox, Ferrari chief Luca di Montezemolo has spent the winter charging around talking about horses heads, offers they can’t refuse and other clichéd mafia nutcase rhetoric. But behind the headbanging, in Fernando Alonso the Scuderia still have probably the most complete driver in Formula One. Although his McLaren tantrum in 2007 exposed his weakness when challenged by a strong opponent, at Ferrari Alonso has the ideal set up to succeed: a team built around him, and a subservient teammate in Felipe Massa. The scarlet cars have been closest of anyone to Red Bull in testing, and with Alonso being the sole focus of his team’s attention they may yet be able to snatch the crown.
For British fans much of the attention will again be on McLaren, with their all-Brit-World-Champion line up of Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button. However, while the strength of their driving line-up is not in doubt, McLaren’s car may let the side down. They faded badly at the end of last season, costing their drivers their title shots, and with both drivers already pessimistic about this year’s car, it may again be tough for them to match Red Bull and Ferrari.
Best of the Rest
As for the rest of the grid, well there is the small matter of a seven-time world champion to consider. However, having come out of retirement after three years away, Michael Schumacher’s form for most of last season suggested he should have stayed tucked up with the Ovaltine. Even if he does improve to beat Nico Rosberg, he will still be driving a Mercedes car made by the team who turned out dross for year after year as Honda, and whose car last year was a major disappointment. As for this year’s car, there’s already talk of how ‘just one more update’ will make them competitive- never a good sign. Elsewhere, Robert Kubica’s season ending rally crash has surely ended Renault’s chances, and barring a Brawn-style miracle the rest of the grid can be discounted.
And so to my prediction.
Hamilton and Alonso will be 2011’s best drivers. But Vettel will be champion.